Prediction Markets
Aggregated probabilities from prediction markets on AGI timelines, AI capabilities, and safety milestones
Market Categories
When will AGI be achieved?
AI safety and alignment breakthroughs
Specific AI capability achievements
AI deployment and societal impact
AI regulation and policy developments
Performance on specific benchmarks
Active Markets
Will AGI be achieved by the end of 2030?
AGI defined as AI system that can perform any intellectual task that a human can do.
Will an AI system pass the Turing Test by 2027?
Turing Test administered by independent panel of judges with standardized protocol.
Will there be a major AI safety incident by 2026?
Major incident defined as causing >$100M in damages or significant loss of life.
Will GPT-5 score >90% on MMLU benchmark?
MMLU (Massive Multitask Language Understanding) benchmark with 57 subjects.
Will the EU pass comprehensive AI regulation by 2025?
Comprehensive regulation covering high-risk AI applications and frontier models.
Will AI contribute >10% to global GDP by 2030?
AI contribution measured by economic impact studies from major consulting firms.